TREASURE VALLEY — Key economic indicators such as the unemployment and foreclosure rate have not reversed their negative trends in recent months, but signs are emerging of better days ahead.

Many experts see hope in the fact that those statistics are not getting much worse, either — possibly signaling the end is near for the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

"The unemployment rate might be rising, but it's not rising as fast as it was," Don Holley, an economist at Boise State University, said. "We've realized we're in the middle of a recession, but I don't think things have gotten meteorically worse, but at the same time they haven't gotten any better. My feeling is that the U.S. economy might have bottomed out, but I don't think Idaho will bottom out for another two or three months."

Housing market trends

Experts point to trends in the housing market as being one positive indicator of a recovery.

After a record number of default notices totaling 819 in July, the Treasure Valley saw a 10 percent decline in foreclosure starts filed in August, according to IdahoDataProviders.com.

"A 10 percent decline is always a good sign, but when we are talking record numbers of 700 to 800 foreclosures month over month like this its still pretty tough to take," IdahoDataProviders.com president Charlie Nate said. "Hopefully in the coming months this trend will continue but I am not optimistic that we will see that."

The number of short sales listed on the local market has also shown signs of stability in recent months, although the number continues to rise with August up 2.98 percent with a total of 2,765 short sale listings. Short sales occur when a lender agrees to sell property for less than is owed on it.

Signs of life appear in business

Caldwell recently began demolition of a key downtown site that officials expect will host a number of new developments, including a Treasure Valley Community College branch. And one key downtown Nampa vacancy is set to be filled in mid-October.

Darby's at the Market will open its doors next month in the three-story space formerly occupied by Market Limone. General manager Trudie Thawley has already started to promote its catering services.

"I'm absolutely positive that this area is poised for a rebound," Thawley said. "Downtown Nampa is coming back to life and there's just a great deal of potential here. And with Darby's being open seven days a week we'll obviously be giving a shot in the arm to local businesses."

The Karcher Mall retail hub has also shown signs of renewed vigor in recent months, with several new store openings to shore up dozens of vacancies that have arisen during the recession. Northern Lights Cinema Grill is set to open in the next few weeks, filling a site vacant for the past eight years. 

Public works construction, such as several road projects and schools, has also helped preserve jobs.

Experts examine local economyThe Treasure Valley economy could be close to bottoming out in the recession, with some signs that recovery could be around the corner.

Here's what some local experts had to say on the future.

Q&A with Steve Fultz, economic director Canyon/Caldwell economic development agency

What are the bright spots in the Canyon County business scene?

Certainly the news out of Nampa about the company that's interested in the MPC facility is a big plus. We also have had in our office, probably within the last 30 days, more business leads than what we may have had in probably the past 6 months. Site visits from prospective businesses just in the last few weeks have picked up. The leads we're speaking with are primarily small businesses, but they are basic sector high-end jobs, primarily in agri-business.

What indicators would suggest Canyon County is following the rest of the nation toward a recovery?

Obviously building construction in the residential sector would be one thing to look at. Commercial construction and employment seem to lag a bit behind some of that, so another indicator is what are we seeing in unemployment, are we leveling off? I think we are.

Has the recession opened up opportunities for new businesses to come to town or expand?

Initially no, but I think what has happened is the recession has caused us all to take a closer look at how we do business and obviously the general cost of doing business. So any opportunities that might come our way might be due to the fact that we have an affordable workforce, and nationally we're still a competitive area for doing business, cost-wise. And probably another element is the expansion of the College of Western Idaho and Treasure Valley Community College, which makes us a more trained and educated workforce.

What has been the most significant economic development recently?

Again, I think in the long-term the educational opportunities are what's going to really benefit us with economic stability in the area.

Describe the state of the local construction industry.

There have been some recent developments in the Caldwell school system, but that addresses mostly short-term issues. In the future, construction that we're looking at in downtown Caldwell and Sky Ranch can certainly provide additional opportunities for that industry.

When do you foresee employment numbers starting to shore up in Canyon County?

We certainly could see some of that pick up in the next quarter or two. I would say that with some of the leads that we're working on in the Nampa and Caldwell area we certainly have the potential to get some people back to work. And not only in the area of securing these new basic sector jobs, but also retrofitting buildings and putting up some new buildings.

Q&A with Bob Fick of the Idaho Department of Labor

What should we be looking for to see if Idaho is following the rest of nation toward recovery?

From the perspective of jobs, the state needs to see the percentage year-over-year gap in total nonfarm jobs begin to narrow. It has been increasing steadily over the past 16 months from seven-tenths of a percent last summer to 7.3 percent this August. That's deeper than the bottom of the 1953-54 or 1980-1982 recessions, which were the worst until now since the Great Depression. If that gap remains essentially the same for another month or two, it will likely indicate that the economy has hit bottom and the gap should begin narrowing in the late fall.

Has the recession opened up opportunities for new businesses to come to Idaho or expand?

The recession has created a significant pool of skilled but unemployed workers from nearly every sector of the economy who could step into a new or expanded business with much less training than would be needed at times of full employment as we had two and three years ago.

What has been the most significant recent economic development?

The announcement by Dell that it would shut down its Twin Falls call center on the down side, and on the good side the resumption of construction on the Hoku plant in Pocatello and indications that the company's financing may get straightened out.

Has construction in the public sector, such as new schools, boosted the local construction scene?

From the nonfarm job estimates, it appears to this point that the public works projects referred to here have preserved jobs rather than generated new ones. Whether this stimulus spending begins to generate new jobs rather than save existing ones is something we won't know probably for another nine months to a year.

When do you foresee employment numbers will rebound?

The current assumptions are that we will hit bottom this year and begin closing that job gap but will probably not get back to a positive year-over-year jobs number until the summer of 2010 at the earliest.

Q&A with Cliff Long, Nampa economic development director

What are the bright spots in the local and state economies?

The recession has affected every sector of our state and local economy, but some industries have been hit harder than others.  We have been fortunate to have a diverse employment base in our area to help soften the blow of industry downsizings, particularly in high-tech.  Sectors like food processing and education have fared better.

What should we look for to see if Idaho is following the rest of nation toward recovery?

The key to our recovery will be job growth.  It is essential that our local industries reach a point where they can once again begin hiring workers.  We must also do everything possible to attract new employers to the area to create new job opportunities.  When we regain a stable and growing employment base, people will have the disposable income needed to purchase more goods, services and homes lifting our whole economy.

Has the recession opened up opportunities for new businesses to come to town or expand?

Many successful entrepreneurs have started their businesses during bad economic times, and undoubtedly many are finding great business opportunities today.  The availability and attractive prices  of real estate, combined with the affordability of construction make this an ideal time for many businesses to open their doors.

What has been the most significant recent economic development?

The explosive growth of College of Western Idaho enrollment will bring many new opportunities to our area in coming years, and may be seen as one of the largest job generators in our valley over the long run.  Recently, we've been fortunate to see additional retail and service jobs created with the opening of the new Sports Authority, and soon Macy's and Idaho Athletic Club.  We've also seen a great deal of interest from manufacturers considering our area for new locations, and we're hopeful to see new jobs result in the coming year.

When do you foresee employment numbers will rebound?

I think we've seen signs that the highest points of unemployment may be behind us, but it will take quite a while for things to truly stabilize and grow.  If things continue to improve, I think we could see real improvement in early 2010.